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HMMT 2014 U34

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Consider a number line, with a lily pad placed at each integer point. A frog is standing at the lily pad at the point 0 on the number line, and wants to reach the lily pad at the point 2014 on the number line. If the frog stands at the point nn on the number line, it can jump directly to either point n+2n+2 or point n+3n+3 on the number line. Each of the lily pads at the points 1,⋯ ,20131, \cdots, 2013 on the number line has, independently and with probability 1/21 / 2, a snake. Let pp be the probability that the frog can make some sequence of jumps to reach the lily pad at the point 2014 on the number line, without ever landing on a lily pad containing a snake. What is p1/2014p^{1 / 2014} ? Express your answer as a decimal number. If CC is the actual answer to this question and AA is your answer, then your score on this problem is ⌈max⁡{25(1−20∣C−A∣),0}⌉\lceil\max \{25(1-20|C-A|), 0\}\rceil.

Dataset text NuminaMath olympiads. Quoted with source.

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0.9102805441016536

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