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HMMT November 2011 U20

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The UEFA Champions League playoffs is a 16 -team soccer tournament in which Spanish teams always win against non-Spanish teams. In each of 4 rounds, each remaining team is randomly paired against one other team; the winner advances to the next round, and the loser is permanently knocked out of the tournament. If 3 of the 16 teams are Spanish, what is the probability that there are 2 Spanish teams in the final round?

Dataset text NuminaMath olympiads. Quoted with source.

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\frac{4}{5}

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