olymmath

HMMT 2013 C3

  • Combinatorics
  • Answer

On a game show, Merble will be presented with a series of 2013 marbles, each of which is either red or blue on the outside. Each time he sees a marble, he can either keep it or pass, but cannot return to a previous marble; he receives 3 points for keeping a red marble, loses 2 points for keeping a blue marble, and gains 0 points for passing. All distributions of colors are equally likely and Merble can only see the color of his current marble. If his goal is to end with exactly one point and he plays optimally, what is the probability that he fails?

Dataset text NuminaMath olympiads. Quoted with source.

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\frac{1}{2^{2012}}

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