HMMT November 2017 E10

Five equally skilled tennis players named Allen, Bob, Catheryn, David, and Evan play in a round robin tournament, such that each pair of people play exactly once, and there are no ties. In each of the ten games, the two players both have a $50 \%$ chance of winning, and the results of the games are independent. Compute the probability that there exist four distinct players $P_{1}, P_{2}, P_{3}, P_{4}$ such that $P_{i}$ beats $P_{i+1}$ for $i=1,2,3,4$. (We denote $P_{5}=P_{1}$ ).