olymmath

HMMT 1999 O2

  • Oral
  • Answer

Alex, Pei-Hsin, and Edward got together before the contest to send a mailing to all the invited schools. Pei-Hsin usually just stuffs the envelopes, but if Alex leaves the room she has to lick them as well and has a 25%25 \% chance of dying from an allergic reaction before he gets back. Licking the glue makes Edward a bit psychotic, so if Alex leaves the room there is a 20%20 \% chance that Edward will kill Pei-Hsin before she can start licking envelopes. Alex leaves the room and comes back to find Pei-Hsin dead. What is the probability that Edward was responsible?

Dataset text NuminaMath olympiads. Quoted with source.

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\frac{1}{2}

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